Предисловие	5
	Н.А.Крупина, Б.В.Иванов, Н.В.Кубышкин, В.А.Лихоманов, П.М.Николаев, А.В.Чернов, Е.Г.Шахов.  Комплексные исследования процессов нарастания и механики разрушения льда естественного намерзания в большом ледовом бассейне ААНИИ (.pdf)	7
	В.Г.Коростелев, С.М.Ковалев.  Некоторые результаты исследований низкочастотных колебаний ледяного покрова в период движения циклона над поверхностью Северного Ледовитого океана  (.pdf)	21
	И.Б.Шейкин, В.Н.Смирнов, С.М.Ковалев.  Оценка возможностей спутниковых навигационных измерений для изучения кинематики и динамики морского льда (по данным российских дрейфующих станций СП-33 и СП-35) (.pdf)	31
	Г.А.Лебедев, В.П.Трипольников.  Модели разрушения айсбергов и стамух взрывами и оценки рисков исходов взрывания (.pdf)	44
	Е.В.Шевнина, З.С.Соловьева.  Многолетняя изменчивость и прогнозы сроков весенних ледовых фаз в устьевой области реки Енисей (.pdf)	49
	Е.В.Шевнина.  Многолетняя изменчивость и методы прогноза сроков начала и достижения максимума половодья на устьевом участке реки Енисей  (.pdf)	57
	М.В.Третьяков.  К моделированию гидрологических процессов в эстуариях с ледовым покровом  (.pdf)	67
	В.П.Зимичев.  Краткосрочный прогноз максимальных уровней половодья на замыкающем гидрометрическом створе, к краевым условиям в реальном масштабе времени с учетом добегания (для устьевого участка реки Енисей) (.pdf)	75
	А.А.Пискун.  Методика расчета водного и руслового режима сложноразветвленных речных дельт на основе методов гидравлики и уравнения баланса наносов  (.pdf)	84
	С.В.Шутилин, А.П.Макштас, Г.В.Алексеев.  Модельные оценки ожидаемых изменений ледяного покрова СЛО при антропогенном потеплении в XXI веке (.pdf)	101
	Ю.А.Горбунов, С.М.Лосев, Л.Н.Дымент.  Стамухи моря Лаптевых (.pdf)	111
	В.Е.Лагун, Н.Н.Парамонова, И.А.Репина.  Измерения приземной концентрации метана на станции Беллинсгаузен (.pdf)	117
	В.Е.Бородачев, З.М.Гудкович, С.В.Клячкин, В.М.Смоляницкий.  Особенности припайных льдов Карского моря и возможные причины межгодовой изменчивости их площади  (.pdf)	120
	В.М.Воробейчиков, О.А.Трошичев, Э.С.Горшков, В.В.Степанов.  Влияние гравитационных возмущений на поведение человека и высших животных  (.pdf)	125
	В.В.Денисов, Г.В.Ильин.  Районирование акваторий как инструмент оптимизации природопользования на арктическом шельфе (.pdf)	134
	С.М.Лосев, Ю.А.Горбунов, Л.Н.Дымент. Характеристики гряд торосов на дрейфующих полях однолетнего льда в северной части Баренцева моря по данным аэрофотосъемки  (.pdf)	145

	Preface	5
	2008
	N.A.Krupina, B.V.Ivanov, N.V.Kubyshkin, V.A.Likhomanov, P.M.Nikolaev, A.V.Chernov, E.G.Shakhov.  Combined experimental studies of growing up processes and failure mechanics of ice of natural freezing ice in aari's large ice tank	7
	07.08.2008 N.A.KRUPINA, B.V.IVANOV, N.V.KUBYSHKIN, V.A.LIKHOMANOV, P.M.NIKOLAEV, A.V.CHERNOV, E.G.SHAKHOV COMBINED EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES OF GROWING UP PROCESSES AND FAILURE MECHANICS OF ICE OF NATURAL FREEZING ICE IN AARI'S LARGE ICE TANK Combined experimental studies were fulfilled in AARI's large ice tank by researchers of the Department of Ship Performance in Ice with the assistance of Department of Interaction of Ocean and Atmosphere and «Arctic-Shelf» laboratory in 2007 under the project 1.7.5 SRTP (Special Research Technical Program) and with support of RFBR (Russian Foundation for Basic Research). Tests were carried out on laboratory ice of natural freezing with thickness of 45 cm analogous to the in-situ sea ice. Experiments included: tests of ice samples at compression parallel and perpendicular to the ice cover surface; tests of ice strength at large-scale compression; – tests of ice strength at indentation of cylindrical indenter; research on characteristics of cracking resistance; research on evolution of vertical profiles of temperature, salinity and density of building-up laboratory ice of natural freezing; modeling of an artificial meltwater pool. The paper is devoted to results of studies of ice samples compressive strength and an artificial meltwater pool thermodynamics.
	V.G.Korostelev, S.M.Kovalev.  Some results of the investigations of the ice cover low-frequency oscillations during the period of the cyclone motion above the surface of the Arctic Ocean	21
	16.08.2008 V.G.KOROSTELEV, S.M.KOVALEV SOME RESULTS OF THE INVESTIGATIONS OF THE ICE COVER LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATIONS DURING THE PERIOD OF THE CYCLONE MOTION ABOVE THE SURFACE OF THE ARCTIC OCEAN The results of the investigations of the oscillations of the drifting ice field of the Arctic Ocean caused by the passage of cyclone in one of the drift periods of the station "North Pole-33" in the 2005 are considered. The main attention is paid at the reveling of the connection between perturbation of the free surface of Arctic Ocean and anemobaric processes. The ice cover plays a role of an original indicator of the ocean cover variability under action of the wind, currents and baric gradients. It is shown that the process of the movement of the cyclones in the Arctic Ocean is one of the causes of the fractures and ridging of the sea ice. This process causes anomaly declination of the sea level. The study of the interconnection between the dynamics character and ice deformations of the different scale with attraction of the satellite observations is a base for improvement of the models of the sea ice dynamic behaviour used in the applied tasks of the ice forecasts and at the study of the catastrophic phenomena nature of the local and geophysical scales.
	I.B.Sheykin, V.N.Smirnov, S.M.Kovalev.  Accuracy estimation of GPS-measurements on the russian drifting stations «North Pole-33» and «North Pole-35»	31
	07.08.2008 I.B.SHEYKIN, V.N.SMIRNOV, S.M.KOVALEV ACCURACY ESTIMATION OF GPS-MEASUREMENTS ON THE RUSSIAN DRIFTING STATIONS «NORTH POLE-33» AND «NORTH POLE-35» There are difficult to estimate realistically the distance and velocity errors of GPS-measurements in the conditions of the ice drifting station. The presented paper includes some developments for solution this problem. At the summer 2005 the detail GPS-measurements are conducted in the high latitudes of Arctic Ocean. Two usual GPS-receivers were deployed into the consolidated ice floe on the distance about 185 meters and fix a position every minute. The analysis of the field data allows investigate 2D distributions of pseudo-distance vector between measured points as well as the standard error of velocity estimations. The Gaussian PDF and confidence ellipses of concentration are used for interpretation of the 2D pseudo-position cloud and the regression parameters are used for estimations of velocity standard error. We have found that the regression standard errors are depended strongly of sampling interval because the GPS-receivers are calculating their positions from the some GPS-satellites at the short intervals and from the different GPS-satellites at the intervals more than 10 minutes. There are similar to the pseudo-differential conditions of GPSmeasurements. The study examined a nonlinear relationship between velocity standard error and sampling interval for the pseudo-differential range as well as the range limits. The potential sources of measured errors are discussed. Probably in situ calibration of GPS-measurements and monitoring of GPS-measurement errors will be useful for planning of investigations in the high latitude conditions.
	G.A.Lebedev, V.P.Tripolnikov.  Models of destruction of icebergs and graunded hummocks by explosion and assessment of blasting results risks	44
	22.08.2008 G.A.LEBEDEV, V.P.TRIPOLNIKOV MODELS OF DESTRUCTION OF ICEBERGS AND GRAUNDED HUMMOCKS BY EXPLOSION AND ASSESSMENT OF BLASTING RESULTS RISKS The essay considers theoretical models of destruction of ice formations like icebergs and grounded hummocks by explosion, with the purpose to ensure safe operation of submarine constructions in freezing seas. Theoretical assessment of ice formations blasting results risks is given along with recommendations for regarding explosion energy channeling effects for the purpose to ensure favorable outcome of the detonation.
	E.V.Shevnina, Z.S.Solov’eva.  Long term variation and forecasting of ice break up phases for the Yenisei river mouth	49
	07.04.2008 E.V.SHEVNINA, Z.S.SOLOV’EVA LONG TERM VARIATION AND FORECASTING OF ICE BREAK UP PHASES FOR THE YENISEI RIVER MOUTH The long term features of the ice moving (ICM), main ice moving (MIC) and free ice (FIC) dates for the Yenisei river mouth has been estimated. The forecasting methods were developed.
	E.V.Shevnina.  The dates of flood begin and maximum level for the Yenisei river mouth: long term variation and forecast	57
	05.03.2008 E.V.SHEVNINA THE DATES OF FLOOD BEGIN AND MAXIMUM LEVEL FOR THE YENISEI RIVER MOUTH: LONG TERM VARIATION AND FORECAST The long term features of the flood begin (FBD) and maximum level (MLD) dates for the Yenisei river mouth has been estimated. The forecasting method for FBD and MLD were developed.
	M.V.Tretyakov.  About modelling hydrological processes in estuaries with an ice cover	67
	05.08.2008 M.V.TRETYAKOV ABOUT MODELLING HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES IN ESTUARIES WITH AN ICE COVER The three-dimensional mathematical model of hydrological processes in estuaries with an ice cover taking into account influence of ice on the sizes of a water stream is submitted. The model uses the modified sigma-coordinates and considers thickness of water from the bottom edge of the ice shipped in water to the bottom. By the example of modelling hydrological processes in an annual cycle in Ob“-Taz estuary necessity of the account of influence of ice for the sizes of a stream is shown. Offered addition to existing models as the modified sigma-coordinates allows to reproduce picture of circulation of waters more adequate to real physical processes in estuaries.
	V.P.Zimichev.  The short-term forecast of maximum levels of a high water on closing hydrometric gauge line, to regional conditions in real time in view of lag of time (for mouth’s station Yenisei river)	75
	07.08.2008 V.P.ZIMICHEV THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST OF MAXIMUM LEVELS OF A HIGH WATER ON CLOSING HYDROMETRIC GAUGE LINE, TO REGIONAL CONDITIONS IN REAL TIME IN VIEW OF LAG OF TIME (FOR MOUTH’S STATION YENISEI RIVER) The technology of recalculation of characteristics of maximum levels of the high water acting with SGN, in characteristics of the short-term forecast of maximum levels of a high water on closing hydrometric gauge line is developed. The Most effective result of forecasts gives the combined selection of empirical dependences on a miscellaneous initial gauge line. It also enables to increase earliness of the forecast. The received dependences are easily expressed in the simple analytical form that enables in the form accessible to any consumer, to offer the automated algorithm of calculation flood forecast characteristics.
	A.A.Piskun.  Method of calculation of water and channel net regime of complicated bifurcated river deltas based on the methods of hydraulics and equation of sediment transport budget	84
	24.08.2008 A.A.PISKUN METHOD OF CALCULATION OF WATER AND CHANNEL NET REGIME OF COMPLICATED BIFURCATED RIVER DELTAS BASED ON THE METHODS OF HYDRAULICS AND EQUATION OF SEDIMENT TRANSPORT BUDGET An approach to calculation of complicated bifurcated deltas under the conditions of deformed channel by one-dimensional hydraulics methods is presented. In addition, the node of branching is considered both as a point of hydraulic connection or stream division (at resistance calculation), and as some object, responding to reality, confined between the section lines at the ends of the branches, bringing water to node and removing (at deformation calculation). Equation of sediment load balance for channel net branching nodes and the way of taking into account stream deformations at variable afflux are developed. Methods of calculation of hydraulic resistances under the conditions of deformed channel at its unknown filling are proposed. The method was tested by the examples of the Ob and Kolyma River deltas. Problems of further development of the method are determined.
	S.V.Shutilin, A.P.Makshtas, G.V.Alexeev.  Modeling estimations of expected changes of ice cover in the Arctic under anthropogenous warming in XXI century	101
	08.08.2008 S.V.SHUTILIN, A.P.MAKSHTAS, G.V.ALEXEEV MODELING ESTIMATIONS OF EXPECTED CHANGES OF ICE COVER IN THE ARCTIC UNDER ANTHROPOGENOUS WARMING IN XXI CENTURY Estimations of possible changes of ice conditions in the Arctic basin till 2100 are executed on the basis of developed in AARI sea ice dynamic-thermodynamic model and monthly mean fields of air surface temperature and atmospheric pressure from numerical experiments with joint models HadCM3 and ECHAM5 under scenarios of atmospheric carbon dioxide increase А1В and В2. Calculations under both scenarios have shown the similar results about distributions of sea ice thickness and concentration. During the maximal development of sea ice cover in winter both characteristics in general correspond to having place now. It is explained by weak sensitivity of sea ice growth to changes of air surface temperature during winter due to presence of negative feedbacks. Essential difference of predicted sea ice conditions from modern is observed during summer, when such feedbacks are absent. Nevertheless, as follows from estimations, even to the end of XXI century it is not necessary to expect the opportunity of ice-free navigation, especially in the Canadian basin
	Yu.A.Gorbunov, S.M.Losev, L.N.Dyment.  Stamukhas of the Laptev Sea	111
	15.02.2008 YU.A.GORBUNOV, S.M.LOSEV, L.N.DYMENT STAMUKHAS OF THE LAPTEV SEA The results of the analysis of materials of airborne ice reconnaissance and satellite ice information, reflecting peculiarities of the distribution of stamukhas in the Laptev Sea for a long-term period are presented. The spatial and temporal changes of their quantity were revealed. Data on the size and duration of existence of these ice features are given.
	V.E.Lagun, N.N.Paramonova, I.F.Repina.  Surface methane concentration measurements at Bellingshausen station	117
	18.07.2008 V.E.LAGUN, N.N.PARAMONOVA, I.A.REPINA SURFACE METHANE CONCENTRATION MEASUREMENTS AT BELLINGSHAUSEN STATION First (2003) measurements of surface methane concentrations sampled at King George Island near Russian Antarctic Bellingshausen station over different underlying surfaces are presented. Air samples were made into metal flasks (1,5L) with electropolished internal surface. Probe analysis was provided by A.I.Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory laboratory based on calibration mixtures with international inter-comparison. Measurement results are compared with current data of other Antarctic stations. Data comparison shows that Bellingshausen data reliable describe the Southern Polar area air gas composition background conditions. Regular greenhouse gases monitoring at Bellingshausen station is proposed.
	V.Ye.Borodachev, Z.M.Gudkovich, S.V.Klyachkin, V.M.Smolyanitsky.  The peculiarities of the Kara Sea landfast ice and probable reasons of the inter-annual variability of its area	120
	01.09.2008 V.YE.BORODACHEV, Z.M.GUDKOVICH, S.V.KLYACHKIN, V.M.SMOLYANITSKY THE PECULIARITIES OF THE KARA SEA LANDFAST ICE AND PROBABLE REASONS OF THE INTER-ANNUAL VARIABILITY OF ITS AREA The basic peculiarities of the Kara Sea landfast ice are under consideration. The correlation between the landfast ice area in the north-eastern part of the sea at the end of winter and the direction of the zonal component of the atmospheric circulation during previous 10 months is revealed. The authors explain the reason of the revealed regularity as the influence of the normal and tangential stresses in the ice cover caused by the gradient currents and sea level tilt near the landfast ice boundary.
	V.M.Vorobeitchikov, O.A.Troshichev, E.S.Gorshkov, V.V.Stepanov.  Influence of gravitational indignations on behavior of the person and the higher animals	125
	07.07.2008 V.M.VOROBEITCHIKOV, O.A.TROSHICHEV, E.S.GORSHKOV, V.V.STEPANOV INFLUENCE OF GRAVITATIONAL INDIGNATIONS ON BEHAVIOR OF THE PERSON AND THE HIGHER ANIMALS Questions of influence of not electromagnetic nature on behavior of the person and the higher animals are investigated. Experimentally established phenomenon of abnormal behavior of the person and the higher animals, caused by active receipt in blood метаболитов the intestinal stick, caused by its accelerated reproduction under the influence of radiation of not electromagnetic nature (presumably – gravitational) the Sun connected with mutual position, the Earth and the Moon and the approach of certain phases of the Moon adhered to the moments is described.
	V.V.Denisov, G.V.Ilyin.  Water areas zoning as implement of nature management optimization in connection with oil and gas resources development on the Arctic shelf	134
	09.06.2008 V.V.DENISOV, G.V.ILYIN WATER AREAS ZONING AS IMPLEMENT OF NATURE MANAGEMENT OPTIMIZATION IN CONNECTION WITH OIL AND GAS RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT ON THE ARCTIC SHELF According to complex analysis of marine nature and natural resources management structure in the Barents-Kara basin ecology-economical (functional) zoning of the region was made. In general zoning is integration of different kinds of economic activity, functions, potential, values (resource and ecological) in definite well- demarcated areas. Identification of nature management priorities in conditions of high competition on define area of water is a result of administrative decision making in collaboration with subjects of social and economical activity. Major task of carried out work is to support development of spatial economic activity planning technology, to create management system and “value”, integral basis for strategic and efficient administrative decision making. Suggested approach can be applied to economic activity planning on local and regional scales.
	S.M.Losev, Yu.A.Gorbunov, L.N.Dyment.  Characteristics of ice ridges on drifting first-year ice floes in the northern area of the Barents Sea from aerial photography data	145
	15.02.2008 S.M.LOSEV, YU.A.GORBUNOV, L.N.DYMENT CHARACTERISTICS OF ICE RIDGES ON DRIFTING FIRST-YEAR ICE FLOES IN THE NORTHERN AREA OF THE BARENTS SEA FROM AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHY DATA The technology of obtaining the initial data from materials of aerial photography made at two polygons in May 2001 is described. The laboratory work was performed by means of the photo- schemes, on which all ice pressure ridges were digitized using a digitizer. The results of the analysis of the calculated characteristics of the density of ice ridges, their length and orientation are presented. Presence of mesoscale structural features is noted in the fields of density and length of ice ridges is noted. It is determined that the distributions of orientation of ice ridges are characterized by pronounced asymmetry.